Ep. 5: dena FEL Community Night - Navigating Market Trends in Energy Flexibility

0:06 谢谢你,Carlotta。是的,我非常高兴能和DNA一起组织这次活动。我认为相比许多其他没有这样机构的国家,我们在德国拥有DNA是很幸运的。我们有幸能够与志同道合的人建立联系,在柏林这里有一个空间,随时为我们服务,所以我们应该利用这个机会。是的,我只想鼓励大家也积极参与。我一直在参与其中一些

0:42 被重点介绍的工作坊,他们的导师计划,到目前为止得到了大量的支持,所以首先要感谢这一点。然后,说到今晚的主题:是的,我不打算介绍我自己。Carlotta已经说过了。是的,很高兴在LinkedIn上联系。我是一个非常开放的人,所以如果你稍后想和我交谈,我们可以互相认识。我想真正深入探讨

1:12 灵活性这个话题,这是我长期以来一直热衷的话题,你们知道的。在这里我不必解释为什么灵活性是能源系统中的关键词,但还是提醒一下:我们正处于这个深度转型阶段,传统上我们不必像现在这样处理生产灵活性,因为我们有波动性可再生能源,我们无法像过去那样控制它们。我们需要重新思考

1:44 需求和电池,特别是作为灵活性来源。需求需要根据生产时间以及拥堵的电网进行调整。这是始终要记住的一点,我认为如果我们总是给出这个类比,我们也可以教育社会其他人,我觉得这很有帮助。水在管道中，那就是电网，它们在任何给定时间都只能输送有限数量的电力,这高度依赖于生产和需求,也就是可再生能源容量,

2:16 高度依赖天气以及需求。现在这些是杠杆,这些是条件和约束。今天都是关于灵活性的。但在我们深入探讨灵活性之前,有一些有趣的宏观趋势我想深入研究。一方面,灵活性，在我看来没有得到足够的重视，现在正遇到世界上两个关键趋势:一个是软件,一个是人工智能。传统上,

2:51 能源工程师不必成为软件专家。现在比以往任何时候都更需要,我认为这里的每个人,尤其是在德国,需要提升他们在软件知识和人工智能知识方面的水平,因为所有这些灵活性都需要数据处理、软件互操作性、需求预测和灵活性预测,这些都是分析算法中固有的。人工智能，不是大语言模型,而是深度学习，如果我们有所需的数据,这是一个非常好的工具,希望

3:25 在德国能比我们目前的速度更快。所以这只是宏观趋势方面的内容。最近，我不知道你们有多少人知道DNV，DNV是一个挪威组织,如果你想做个类比的话,有点像弗劳恩霍夫研究所。他们最近发布了一份关于能源展望的报告,非常有趣。他们试图保守一些,因为他们不想预测我们如何

3:54 到2045年并在2045年达到零排放,而是更保守、更现实一些，因为说实话,情况并不像应该的那样光明。我想分享这份报告中我觉得有趣的几个要点:一方面,他们说实际上,到2045年我们可以实现90%的减排。如果不是100%,90%似乎也不

4:25 那么糟糕。所以即使是现实情景也看起来相当不错。当然这不会没有努力,但那是另一回事了。我觉得有趣的另一个好消息是:根据他们的说法,去年全球排放达到峰值。所以我们可以做得更好,但承认成就也是好的。这是在全球范围内。对于了解我的人来说,我非常热衷于中国以及那里正在发生的事情

4:57 。我认为作为像我们这样的能源爱好者,中国和德国可能是最有趣的国家之一，德国是因为世界第三大经济体正在向可再生能源转型并引领潮流的速度,中国同样在国内的实施中引领潮流,而且特别是在电动汽车、电池和光伏等材料的生产方面。也许你不知道,但在2020年

5:28 他们为自己设定了一个相当雄心勃勃的目标,到2030年安装1200吉瓦的太阳能和风能容量。1200吉瓦，我不知道你们是否了解这些数字,但在德国,我们希望总共拥有大约250吉瓦,这是实现零排放的关键目标。所以1200吉瓦,他们在2020年设定了这个目标,要在2030年实现。

5:58 他们提前六年实现了这个目标，实际上是去年。想到这一点真是令人难以置信,而且增长是指数级的。如果你也看看光伏的生产能力,那真是疯狂。但不仅仅是光伏,还有电动汽车。仅中国工厂就能生产的新车销量已经占全球的大约一半，我认为超过一半了。

6:27 在电池方面,全球需求为2太瓦时。这是目前世界的需求,而全球已经有8太瓦时的生产能力,其中中国已经占了6太瓦时。这可能解释了我们看到的电池价格暴跌,而仅德国这里就有300吉瓦的应用申请,这给出了一个数量级的概念。不是所有的都会被安装,

7:02 但价格已经同比下降了约50%,我们看到的价格曲线将进一步下降。好吧,也有不好的事情，美国,特朗普，我想我们可能都不太高兴。好的一面是,如果你想看光明面,我认为美国各州有相当大的权力。像加利福尼亚这样的州仍在保持他们的

7:33 以一种积极的方式发展。即使是像德克萨斯这样最自由主义的州,也在以创纪录的速度安装风电和其他可再生能源。考虑到他们的采用速度,尤其是电网审批速度,这是一个非常值得研究的案例。正如你可能知道的,电网审批是我们实现能源转型成功的关键障碍之一，我们如何管理电网以及这种过时的电网接入审批方式。所以他们某种程度上是以一种

8:07 非常混乱的审批方式来做,让每个人都可以直接接入电网。对我来说这是一个非常有趣的案例。对我而言,德克萨斯证明了即使是最狂热的可再生能源反对者,在他们的自由主义天堂里,也能看到他们实际上非常支持能源转型。任何自由主义者和可再生能源反对者都应该看看德克萨斯

8:36 的例子。好的,然后再说几个我觉得有趣的关于德国的具体情况。现在我们有19%的能源份额来自电力。由于电动汽车和其他供热需求,这一比例预计将增加一倍以上,达到46%，我们将深入探讨如何管理电力在需求份额中的这种巨大增长。我们将获得

9:13 大量的电池。尽管今年申请并网的300吉瓦可能不会全部实现,但到2050年我们仍将拥有337吉瓦的电池,容量相当于1,560吉瓦时。为了给那些不太熟悉德国情况的人一个数量级概念:我们现在的峰值需求约为80吉瓦,每日需求约为2太瓦时

9:47 。考虑到增长,数字会更高一些,但这仍然是一个值得记住的有趣数字。顺便说一下,他们在这个数字中也在一定程度上包括了电动汽车电池,但主要是固定式电池。电网费用的巨额支出也引起了我的兴趣。我们之前在我和Michael录制的播客中讨论过这个问题。电网费用不

10:21 一定必须那么高，但我们谈论的是3.3万亿,按照德国对"billion"一词的理解,对于最近关注新闻的人来说。我们谈论的是即将到来的1.5万亿新债务,这将使德国政府债务翻倍,达到3.3万亿。这是一笔巨大的即将到来的成本,所以灵活性也是降低电网费用和正在规划的电网支出的关键。关于车辆,我发现一个非常光明的事情是,到2050年,

10:56 他们预测车辆绝对数量中只有3%会是内燃机汽车。我从未完全意识到的一点是:2050年我们只有3%。这是一个有趣的反转,因为我们现在电动汽车的绝对数量还不到3%。所以在这么短的时间内,我们实际上会完全翻转过来。是的,也许还有一些想法。我参加了DNV的一个活动,西门子能源的CEO

11:31 在场,他们对用于容量机制的燃气电厂相当看好。我认为它们有一定作用,但我们真的需要那么多新的、昂贵的燃气电厂吗,还是我们可以使用电动汽车和其他灵活性来源?这只是为以后的辩论提出一些问题,以及显然现任总理似乎相当看好的核能辩论。它们在启动和关闭时实际上

12:03 是否灵活?我学到一件有趣的事:显然法国的核反应堆比德国的核反应堆灵活得多。我没有核实这一点,但至少看起来很有趣。这让我质疑核反应堆非常不灵活的假设是否总是正确的,以及氢能的扩张将发挥什么作用,因为我们看到

12:34 氢能实际上在许多领域并未被采用。关于德国新政府的一些想法:我读了基民盟想要推行的关键支柱。我有点怀疑。天然气排在第一位，建设燃气电厂是他们的优先事项。第二是以不同方式推动核能:聚变,推动聚变技术,并重新评估我们是否不能再次启动现有的核电站,

13:08 这似乎仍然，然后,是的,停止电动汽车，电动汽车,内燃机禁令(Verbrenner-Verbot),2035年的内燃机禁令。这是第三个关键优先事项。第四个优先事项,我们可以说,好吧,还不算太糟:那就是碳税。我不确定它会有多大影响,以及他们计划如何使其具有社会性。这曾是一个很大的争论,黄背心运动

13:36 在法国也显示了高碳税可能意味着什么。所以,最后几个想法。我认为我们需要在德国更快地数字化，正如我们之前谈到的,只有2%的智能电表,这扼杀了所有创新的商业模式。智能电表轻量版倡议，也许你听说过,与Octopus和其他公司一起，这是我绝对同意应该做的事情。只需获取测量数据,

14:10 尽可能降低成本,使用无关性控制,对于算法和学习，也许,以数据隐私为代价,让更多数据流动起来。我们已经通过智能手机泄露了这么多数据。我不确定我们在智能电表方面是否足够务实,以及这是否真的是需要如此安全的关键个人信息。是的,就绿色协议而言,我也

14:45 相当乐观。几天前,你可能看到了乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩发布的《负担得起的能源行动计划》，其中有很多好的元素。我也建议研究一下;他们真的想通过取消电网费用和降低所有成员国的电力税来专注于降低电力成本。这将是一个有趣的发展。而且,正如你可能听说过的《清洁能源一揽子计划》，在RiDERgy工作之前,

15:15 我当时在 InnoEnergy 工作,InnoEnergy 的 CEO 总是提到清洁能源一揽子计划。当它在 2019 年通过议会时，那几乎是很久以前的事了，大多数监管变化文件都有 1000 页,其中每一条都是一个商业机会。成员国必须在 2021 年之前完成所有这些变化,是的,我们现在到了 2025 年,如今与一些 Stadtwerke(市政公用事业公司)等谈论动态电价时,他们还是会说:"是的,我想我们已经把它

15:46 列入路线图了。"是的,我认为我们需要更快一些,至少这是欧盟委员会的首要任务，真正让成员国实施其中一些变化。所以这有望给我们带来一些进展。现在,切入我们即将进行的环节:灵活性，正如我所说,电动汽车是 RiDERgy 商业模式关注的部分。我们将一起讨论这个特定的主题。形式将会是

16:20 在不同的桌子上进行。我不确定你是否想分享一下形式的细节,Carlotta,所以我待会儿把话筒交给你。还有热能，我们很高兴 Kelvin Energy 在这里,他们将深入探讨来自热源的灵活性。然后控制是其中很重要的一个方面,而且,反直觉的是,

16:48 热能是 Kelvin Energy,而控制和整体控制是一家叫 HEAT 的公司。所以不要混淆，希望 Carlotta 会把它讲清楚。还有,我个人对整个活动的一个鼓励:我非常相信，美国人做得好的一件事就是总是问:"我能帮你什么?"我认为在德国我们有点过于挑剔和保守,而

17:20 我们应该采用那种方式,特别是在社交环境中。只需问对方，建设性地思考，我能帮你什么,并乐于分享。特别是如果你有一个创业公司或一个好点子:创业公司更多是因为缺乏吸引力、没有足够的客户、无法实现目标而失败,而不是因为过度分享。我认为 1 + 1 远远大于 2。所以,是的,尽量

17:50 互相帮助,开放和分享,希望你们享受并度过一个愉快的夜晚。谢谢。

18:03 非常感谢。我想你们都有很多话题可以讨论,这就是我们现在要做的。

0:06 Thanks, Carlotta. Yeah, so I'm very happy to co-organize this event with the DNA. I think we are privileged in Germany to have the DNA compared to many other countries that don't have such an agency. We have the privilege of being able to connect with like-minded people, having a space here in Berlin, always there for us, so we should leverage this opportunity. Yeah, I can just encourage everyone to also engage. I've been engaging since some of these

0:42 workshops that were highlighted, their mentoring program, and received tons of support so far, so thanks for that as a first note. And then, to the topic of the night: yeah, I'm not going to give an intro about myself. Carlotta already said it. Yeah, happy to connect on LinkedIn. I'm a very open-minded person, so if you want to talk to me later, we can get to know each other. And I want to really dig deeper

1:12 into the topic of flexibility, which is a topic that I've been passionate about for a long time, as you know. And here I don't have to explain why flexibility is a keyword in the energy system, but still, as a reminder: we are in this deep transition phase where we traditionally didn't have to handle production flexibility as much as we do now, as we have volatile renewables that we cannot control as much as in the past. We need to rethink

1:44 demand and batteries in particular as flexibility sources. The demand needs to be adjusted to the production time as well as to congested grids. That's always one thing to remember, and I think we can also educate the rest of society if we always give this analogy, which I think is very helpful. The water being in the pipes - that's the grid - they can transport a limited amount of electricity at any given time, and this highly depends on the production and the demand, which is the renewables capacity,

2:16 highly weather dependent as well as demand dependent. Now these are the levers, these are the conditions and the constraints. And today is all about flexibility. But before we dive deeper into flexibility, there are a few interesting macro trends that I wanted to deep-dive into. On the one hand, flexibility - in my view not highlighted enough - is now coming across two crucial trends in the world: one is software, and one is AI. Traditionally,

2:51 energy engineers didn't have to be experts in software. Now more than ever, I think everybody here, especially in Germany, needs to up their game in terms of software know-how and AI know-how, because all of this flexibility requires data handling, software interoperability, demand forecasting, and flexibility forecasting, which are inherent in analytics algorithms. AI - not LLMs, but deep learning - is very much a great tool for that, if we have the data required, hopefully

3:25 in Germany faster than we're currently progressing at this pace. So that's just in terms of macro trends. Recently - I don't know how many of you know DNV - DNV is a Norwegian organization, a bit like Fraunhofer if you want to give it an analogy. They recently released a report that is quite interesting about the energy outlook. They try to be conservative in the sense that they didn't want to forecast how

3:54 we get to 2045 and reach zero emissions by 2045, but rather be a bit more conservative, more realistic - because let's face it, it's not looking as bright as it could. A few highlights I wanted to share from this report that I found interesting: on the one hand, they said that realistically speaking, we can get to a 90% emissions reduction by 2045. If it's not 100%, 90% doesn't seem

4:25 so bad either. So even the realistic scenario seems quite good. Of course it's not going to be without effort, but that's another story. Another piece of good news I found interesting: according to them, last year global emissions peaked. So we could do better, but it's also good to acknowledge achievements. And that's on a global scale. For those that know me, I'm very much passionate about China and what's happening

4:57 over there. I think that as energy enthusiasts like we are, China and Germany are perhaps among the most interesting countries - Germany for the pace at which the third-largest world economy is transitioning towards renewables and taking the lead, and China equally taking the lead in implementation within their country, but also especially in the production of materials like EVs, batteries, and PV. And maybe you didn't know, but in 2020

5:28 they set themselves quite an ambitious goal of installing 1,200 gigawatts of solar and wind capacity by 2030. 1,200 gigawatts - I don't know if you know the numbers a little bit, but in Germany we want to have around 250 gigawatts overall as a key target to get to zero emissions. So 1,200 gigawatts, and they set that goal in 2020 to be achieved by 2030.

5:58 They achieved the goal six years early - actually last year. It's just mind-boggling to think about that, and the growth is just exponential. If you look at also the production capacity of PV, it's insane. But it's not only PV, it's also EVs. They already account for about half - I think more than half - of the world's new vehicle sales that they can produce in Chinese factories alone.

6:27 And in terms of batteries, there's a global demand of 2 terawatt hours. That is currently the world's demand, and there's already 8 terawatt hours of global production capacity, of which China covers 6 terawatt hours already. This may explain the battery price plunges we've seen, and the 300 gigawatt applications here in Germany alone give a bit of an order of magnitude. Not everything will be installed,

7:02 but prices have been decreasing around 50% year over year, and we are seeing a price curve that will be decreasing much more. OK, there are also bad things - US, Trump - that I think we are all probably not so happy about. The good thing, if you want to look at the bright side, I think the states in the US have quite a lot of power. States like California are still maintaining their

7:33 trajectory in a good way. And even the most libertarian state like Texas is incredibly installing wind power and other renewables at record pace. It's an interesting use case to really look at, given their speed of adoption and especially grid approvals, which, as you probably know, is one of the key hurdles for us to succeed in the energy transition - how we manage the grids and this antiquated way of approving grid access. So they are kind of doing it in

8:07 a very chaotic approval way so that everybody can just connect to the grid. It's a very interesting use case to me. And Texas, for me, proves that even the most ardent haters of renewables can see, in their libertarian paradise, that they are actually very much fans of the energy transition. Any libertarian person and hater of renewables should look at Texas

8:36 as well. Right, then just a few more specifics about Germany that I found interesting. Now we have 19% of the share of energy coming from electricity. This is set to more than double, to 46%, due to EVs and other heat demands - things we will dive deeper into: how we manage this tremendous increase in the share of electricity in the share of demand. And we will get

9:13 a lot of batteries. Even though the 300 gigawatts that applied for being connected this year will probably not all happen, we will still have 337 gigawatts of batteries in 2050, which amounts to a capacity of 1,560 gigawatt hours. To give an order of magnitude for those not so familiar with the German situation: we have now about 80 gigawatts of peak demand and about 2 terawatt hours of daily

9:47 demand. Given the increase it will be a bit more, but still it's an interesting figure to keep in mind. They were also including EV batteries, by the way, to some extent in that figure, but mostly stationary batteries. The tremendous expense of grid fees also piqued my interest. We discussed it earlier here in the podcast that I recorded with Michael. The grid fees not

10:21 necessarily having to be that high - but we're talking 3.3 trillion, in the German sense of the word "billion," for those following the news lately. We're talking 1.5 trillion in new debt coming, that's doubling the German governmental debt, and it's 3.3 trillion. It's a lot of costs coming up, so flexibility is also key to reduce the grid fees and the grid expenditures that are being planned. One very bright thing I found about vehicles is that in 2050,

10:56 they predicted only 3% of the absolute number of vehicles would be internal combustion engines. Something I never quite realized: in 2050 we only have 3%. That's an interesting flip side, as we're now at less than 3% EVs in absolute numbers. So in such a short time we will actually flip it around. Yeah, and maybe a few more thoughts. I was at a DNV event, the Siemens Energy CEO

11:31 was there, and they were quite bullish about gas plants for capacity mechanisms. I think they have a role to play, but do we really need that many new, expensive gas plants, or can we use EVs and other flexibility sources? Just opening up a few questions for debate later on, as well as obviously the nuclear debate that the current Chancellor seems quite bullish about. And are they actually

12:03 flexible in the ramp-up and ramp-down? One thing I learned interestingly: apparently French nuclear reactors are much more flexible than German nuclear reactors were. I didn't fact-check it, but it seemed quite interesting at least. It made me question whether the assumption of nuclear reactors being very inflexible is actually always true, and what role the ramp-up of hydrogen will play, as we're seeing that

12:34 hydrogen is not actually being adopted in many areas. A few thoughts on the new German government: I read the CDU's key pillars that they want to pursue. I'm a bit skeptical. Gas was number one - making gas power plants is their priority. Second is pushing nuclear in different ways: fusion, pushing on fusion technology, and reevaluating whether we cannot turn the existing ones on again,

13:08 Somehow that still seems - and then, yeah, stopping EVs - the EV, the Verbrenner-Verbot, the internal combustion ban in 2035. This was the third key priority. And the fourth priority, we could say, OK, that's not too bad: it's a CO2 tax. I'm not sure how much it will have an influence, and how they plan to make it social. It was a bit of a big debate, and the yellow vests

13:36 in France showed as well what a high CO2 tax could mean. So, final few thoughts. I think we need to digitize faster in Germany - with 2% smart meters, as we were talking about earlier, it just kills all the innovative business models. The smart meter light initiative - maybe you have heard of it, with Octopus and others - that's something I definitely agree should be done. Just get the measurements and

14:10 make it as cheap as possible, with agnostic control, and for the algorithms and for the learning - maybe, at the cost of data privacy, let's get more data flowing. We are already giving away so much data with our smartphones. I'm not sure if we're being pragmatic enough with the smart meters, and if that's really such critical personal information that it needs to be so secure. And yeah, in terms of the Green Deal, I'm also

14:45 quite optimistic. A few days ago, the Affordable Energy Action Plan that you might have seen - that Ursula von der Leyen released - has a lot of good elements in it. I also recommend looking into it; they really want to focus on lowering power costs through removing grid fees and reducing electricity taxes across all member states. That's going to be an interesting development. And, as you might have heard of the Clean Energy Package - before working at RiDERgy,

15:15 I was working for InnoEnergy, and the CEO of InnoEnergy was always referencing the Clean Energy Package. When it went through parliament in 2019 - that was almost back in the day - most of the regulatory changes were 1,000 pages, where each one is a business opportunity. Member states had to have all these changes done by 2021, and yeah, we're in 2025 and talking with some Stadtwerke, etc., nowadays about dynamic tariffs is still like, "yeah, I think we have

15:46 it in the roadmap." Yeah, I think we need to be faster, and at least that's a top priority of the European Commission - to really have the member states implementing some of these changes. So that's hopefully going to bring us something. Now, to the segue into the sessions we're going to have: flexibility - as I said, EVs are the part of the business model that RiDERgy focuses on. We're going to discuss this particular topic together. The format is going to be

16:20 at different tables. I'm not sure if you wanted to share the details, Carlotta, about the format briefly - so I'll give you the word for that in a second. As well as heat - we're glad to have Kelvin Energy here with us, and they're going to dig deeper into the flexibility coming from heat sources. And then the control is a big aspect of it, and there, counterintuitively,

16:48 heat is Kelvin Energy, and the control and the overall control is a company called HEAT. So don't be confused - hopefully Carlotta is going to make it clear. And, one personal encouragement from me for the overall event: I believe much in - one thing that the Americans do well is always asking, "How can I help you?" I think in Germany we are a bit too critical and reserved, and

17:20 we should rather adopt that approach, especially in a networking environment. Just ask the other person - think constructively - how can I help you, and be open to sharing. Especially if you have a startup or a bright idea: startups die more from the lack of traction and not having enough customers and making it happen, than from oversharing. And I think 1 + 1 equals much more than 2. So yeah, just try to

17:50 help each other out, be open and sharing, and hopefully you enjoy it and have a good evening. Thanks.

18:03 Thank you so much. I think you all have a lot to talk about, and that's what we want to do now.